Donald Trump's tariffs, meant as political punishment, have avoided the predicted chaos, lifting US growth, weakening rivals, and letting him claim victory in a resilient global economy, observes T T Ram Mohan.
Brent crude oil price surged 4 per cent on Friday, following tension between Iran and the US. Airlines, however, have been unable to pass on the price increase to customers due to the soft demand.
Traders brushed aside rumours that the US government's stress tests would require the banking sector to raise significant new capital. Instead, further gains for equity markets and better-than-expected US employment data set a positive tone.
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday lowered the inflation projection for the current fiscal to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent earlier, taking into account good agricultural output and falling crude prices.
India imports about 25 million tonnes of oil from Iraq each year.
Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by 80 paise a litre each on Saturday, the fourth increase in five days as oil firms passed on to consumers the spike in cost of raw material. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 98.61 per litre as against Rs 97.81 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 89.07 per litre to Rs 89.87, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. All the four increases since the ending of a four-and-half-month long hiatus in rate revision on March 22, have been of 80 paise a litre.
A depreciation in the value of the rupee against the dollar, coupled with surging crude oil prices, are likely to push the country's crude oil import bill to over $100 billion in 2008-09, from $77.02 billion in 2007-08, according to industry officials.
Petrol price on Tuesday was increased by 15 paise per litre and diesel by 18 paise as State-owned fuel retailers started passing on the increase in international oil prices to consumers after an 18-day hiatus.
Usually, a fall in oil prices is followed with a cut in retail prices of auto fuels and the government passes on the benefit to consumers. However, Morgan Stanley believes gains this time around will remain capped.
Exports in January 2014 stood at $26.89 billion.
The windfall taxes on domestic crude oil production and fuel exports will generate close to $12 billion (Rs 94,800 crore) for the government in the remainder of the current fiscal while trimming profits of firms such as Reliance Industries Ltd and ONGC, Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday. On July 1, the government imposed windfall gain taxes on the export of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), and on the domestic production of crude oil. It has also mandated exporters to meet the requirements of the domestic market first.
'The market's nervousness ahead of anticipated US tariffs has led to a significant downturn in Indian equities.'
ONGC and Oil India might be hit because of this additional burden which they might have to take because of crude going to $100 per barrel.
Expects exemption of oil and gas profits from minimum alternate tax and all cess in the nature of excise duty are to be subsumed in GST.
In an event-heavy week, stock investors will track quarterly earnings of several bluechip firms, the likely outcome of ongoing India-US trade talks, and inflation data for market cues, analysts said on Sunday. Moreover, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also guide movement in equities, they said.
The government was likely to take a decision on a hike in petrol and diesel prices in mid-July, a government official said on Monday. The review has been necessitated by the increase in global and domestic crude oil prices.
The rupee slumped 5 per cent in 2025 as persistent capital outflows from foreign investors, alongside heightened dollar demand from importers, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies.
India's crude oil import bill has jumped 40 per cent to Rs 117,032 crore (Rs 1170.32 billion) in 2004-05 on the back of high international oil prices, petroleum secretary S C Tripathi said on Monday.
From the Sensex constituents, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, Eternal, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and Axis Bank were among the major gainers. In contrast, Trent, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Maruti and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the laggards.
The hike comes on back of two massive hikes effected on February 1 and 16.
Aviation companies are set to get a major relief from high aviation turbine fuel prices. Following a steep decline in crude oil prices, oil marketing companies are looking to cut ATF prices by 5-6 per cent, or Rs 2,000-2,500 a kl across various cities beginning Thursday, said industry sources.
Investors and companies should brace for higher commodity prices over the next few weeks in the backdrop of Russian troops attacking Ukraine on Thursday. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden threatened new sanctions against Russia for an act of aggression against Ukraine. All this, analysts believe, can push prices of key commodities such as crude oil, ammonia, urea, potash, and phosphates higher.
Output in the first half of the year was 101.59 million tonnes.
'Deposit and lending rates have started to fall considerably. It is likely to spur investment and consumption of durables.'
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
'The primary market's rhythm mirrors investor confidence. While sentiment may appear cautious, it reflects maturity, not weakness.'
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
Oil economists have been arguing the world over, a full removal of subsidies is the only way consumption will fall
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, offloading shares worth Rs 27,142 crore in just the first three days of October due to intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and improved performance of Chinese markets. The outflow came after FPI investment reached a nine-month high of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
Officials from State-run refiners contend that savings from purchase of Russian oil are used to offset a part of the losses in revenues from selling transport fuels and LPG at State-set rates.
Among Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Motors and Power Grid were the gainers. However, Adani Ports, ITC, UltraTech Cement and Titan were among the laggards.
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said.
The falls meant that both crude futures were at their lowest levels since mid-April
The state-run Indian Oil Corporation on Wednesday said it plans to begin the commodity derivative transactions in a few weeks as part of its risk management strategy against the volatile international crude oil prices.
The US Fed interest rate decision, inflation data and FIIs are the key factors that are expected to drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Global trends will also be tracked by investors for further cues, they added. "The Indian stock market's future trajectory will be influenced by a blend of global and domestic factors.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) caution on inflation, highlighted during the recent monetary policy meeting, may put investors' faith in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks to test, analysts said. They, however, believe FMCG stocks may ride through this near-term investor anxiety as related companies are, typically, well-equipped to handle inflation due to their pricing power and steady demand for essential goods.
"In principle, the ask in return is that India should not support the G7 (Group of Seven) proposal. "A decision on this issue will be taken later following talks with all the partners," an official with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said.These "substantial discounts" will be steeper than those offered by Iraq in the past two months, officials said.
An empowered group of ministers headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, which decides on revising rates of the sensitive products, has not met since June last year even though crude oil prices have spiralled upward by about 50 per cent.
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